Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 83,722
2 South Dakota 73,905
3 Iowa 59,052
4 Wisconsin 56,664
5 Nebraska 50,744
6 Utah 47,975
7 Idaho 46,190
8 Illinois 45,354
9 Mississippi 45,128
10 Tennessee 44,692
11 Alabama 44,424
12 Montana 44,123
13 Arkansas 44,085
14 Louisiana 43,992
15 Florida 41,214
16 Missouri 40,636
17 Kansas 40,452
18 Minnesota 39,654
19 Rhode Island 39,201
20 Nevada 39,200
21 Oklahoma 38,951
22 Wyoming 38,865
23 Georgia 38,569
24 South Carolina 37,972
25 Arizona 37,853
26 Indiana 37,754
27 Texas 37,591
28 Alaska 32,380
29 New Jersey 31,644
30 Kentucky 31,395
31 New Mexico 30,618
32 North Carolina 29,786
33 Delaware 29,579
34 New York 29,041
35 Colorado 28,549
36 Michigan 27,625
37 Maryland 27,510
38 Massachusetts 27,315
39 District of Columbia 26,889
40 California 26,219
41 Ohio 25,502
42 Connecticut 24,863
43 Puerto Rico 23,826
44 Virginia 23,661
45 Pennsylvania 21,015
46 West Virginia 18,781
47 Washington 17,776
48 Oregon 13,485
49 Hawaii 11,737
50 New Hampshire 10,789
51 Maine 6,653
52 Vermont 4,629

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 2,022
2 South Dakota 1,757
3 Iowa 1,364
4 Minnesota 1,287
5 Montana 1,270
6 Wisconsin 1,163
7 Wyoming 1,160
8 Utah 1,057
9 Indiana 1,021
10 Illinois 969
11 Nebraska 966
12 Alaska 910
13 Colorado 876
14 Oklahoma 794
15 Missouri 773
16 Kansas 726
17 Idaho 684
18 Ohio 674
19 Tennessee 670
20 Nevada 582
21 Kentucky 565
22 Michigan 564
23 Arkansas 556
24 New Mexico 544
25 West Virginia 513
26 Alabama 488
27 New Jersey 461
28 Delaware 430
29 Louisiana 428
30 Mississippi 408
31 Arizona 406
32 Massachusetts 391
33 Pennsylvania 387
34 Texas 337
35 Florida 334
36 Maryland 331
37 South Carolina 324
38 New Hampshire 294
39 North Carolina 269
40 Connecticut 256
41 Washington 249
42 New York 247
43 Georgia 243
44 Rhode Island 240
45 Oregon 237
46 California 226
47 District of Columbia 221
48 Puerto Rico 211
49 Virginia 153
50 Maine 136
51 Vermont 127
52 Hawaii 50

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,865
2 New York 1,722
3 Massachusetts 1,498
4 Connecticut 1,328
5 Louisiana 1,319
6 Mississippi 1,190
7 Rhode Island 1,183
8 North Dakota 973
9 District of Columbia 935
10 Illinois 881
11 Arizona 865
12 Michigan 838
13 Georgia 822
14 Florida 815
15 South Carolina 798
16 Delaware 755
17 Pennsylvania 733
18 Indiana 729
19 South Dakota 727
20 Arkansas 723
21 Maryland 711
22 Texas 693
23 Alabama 662
24 Iowa 630
25 Nevada 621
26 New Mexico 579
27 Missouri 564
28 Tennessee 564
29 Minnesota 525
30 Montana 491
31 Ohio 489
32 Wisconsin 473
33 California 462
34 North Carolina 460
35 Colorado 446
36 Virginia 445
37 Kansas 431
38 Idaho 426
39 Nebraska 408
40 Kentucky 389
41 Oklahoma 386
42 New Hampshire 366
43 Washington 346
44 West Virginia 324
45 Puerto Rico 292
46 Wyoming 248
47 Utah 223
48 Oregon 180
49 Hawaii 156
50 Alaska 125
51 Maine 122
52 Vermont 94

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 29
2 North Dakota 17
3 Montana 14
4 Wyoming 9
5 Illinois 8
6 Wisconsin 7
7 Michigan 6
8 Minnesota 6
9 New Mexico 6
10 Tennessee 5
11 West Virginia 5
12 Arkansas 4
13 Indiana 4
14 Iowa 4
15 Kansas 4
16 Massachusetts 4
17 Texas 4
18 Colorado 3
19 Mississippi 3
20 Nebraska 3
21 Nevada 3
22 North Carolina 3
23 Oklahoma 3
24 Utah 3
25 Alabama 2
26 Arizona 2
27 Florida 2
28 Georgia 2
29 Kentucky 2
30 Louisiana 2
31 Maryland 2
32 New Jersey 2
33 Pennsylvania 2
34 Puerto Rico 2
35 California 1
36 Connecticut 1
37 Delaware 1
38 District of Columbia 1
39 Idaho 1
40 Maine 1
41 Missouri 1
42 New York 1
43 Ohio 1
44 Oregon 1
45 Rhode Island 1
46 South Carolina 1
47 Virginia 1
48 Alaska 0
49 Hawaii 0
50 New Hampshire 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Norton Kansas 185,600 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 181,511 2 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 177,776 3 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 175,772 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 168,705 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 57,399 410 86
Richland South Carolina 45,461 835 73
York South Carolina 29,080 1857 40
Orange California 21,236 2369 24
Pierce Washington 15,971 2632 16

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 683 1073 65
Davidson Tennessee 550 1355 56
Orange California 481 1526 51
York South Carolina 431 1670 46
Pierce Washington 315 2007 36

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons